Writen by Trequartista
Bundesliga Preview
Ordnung, tor, spannung und bier. That’s what Bundesliga is about, perfect order and tidiness, goals, suspense, excitement and beer!
With a scoring rate of 2.91 goals per match and an average attendance of 42,624 spectators (by far the highest among all football leagues around the world and second only to America’s NFL among all leagues and competitions regardless the sport) the German top tier is a beauty. A must follow for every football enthusiast and an excellent option for any serious bettor’s portfolio!
Here’s a short guide for girls: 18 teams play each other at home and away during the 9-month season, a total of 306 matches from early August till early May, with a 5-week winter break.
Top three of the final table qualify for nest season’s Champions League, 4th goes to qualification round, 5th and 6th qualify for the Europa League.
Bottom two get relegated to Zweite liga, the team that finishes 16th go to a double play-out encounter with second division’s 3rd.
And some notes for boys, regarding the season that opens its curtains tonight:
*Last year’s treble winner Bayern is the hot favorite in ante-post betting, with odds on being champions again being as short as 1.20! The Bavarians go to fight with Pep Guardiola in charge and the additions of Mario Gotze and Thiago Alcantara will undoubtedly prove more than enough ‘cover’ for the losses of Gomez, Tymoshchuk, Petersen and Emre Can. We’ll find out soon whether the change of last year’s 4-2-3-1 to this year’s 4-1-4-1 (with most probably Thomas Muller as a ‘false 9’, Lahm in a more advanced position and Ribery as a trequartista) was a wise move.
*Last year’s runner up (in both Bundesliga and Champions League) Borussia Dortmund is priced around 5.75 and looks like the only real threat to the Bavarian machine gun. Gotze and Santana are out, Mkhitaryan (25 goals/7 assists last season with Shakhtar in 29 league matches), Aubameyang and Papastathopoulos are in, the ‘magician’ Jurgen Klopp and Lewandowski the killer are still here, and the team with the highest average attendance in the world is set for another exciting season.
*Schalke (average odds 25), Leverkusen (31), Wolfsburg (74) are considered by the bookmakers as the main contesters for the Champions League spots, quite deservedly. The ‘Royal Blues’ have lost Bastos but they got the big and effective Adam Szalai, if they manage to keep hot prospect Papadopoulos they’ll be fine.
Bayer… Neverkusen (a team that has won the UEFA Cup but never won the championship!) sold incredible Schurrle to Chelsea, last year’s top full back Carvajal (Real Madrid) and Czech experienced left footed Kadlec (Fenerbahce), however the additions of Japanese starlet Son, talented Emre Can and old foxes’ Spahic and Palop make up for the losses quite OK. Actually, they are my clear favorite for 3rd place, especially having Stefan Kiessling in the best form of his career!
Wolfsburg is a case worth watching, a team that has changed its manager seven times in the last 3 and a half years and that is in search of a new identity, being better organized and less wasteful. They bought Klose from Nuremberg, Koo from Augsburg and the fighting spirited Caligiuri (booked 10 times last season) from Freiburg, they lost a dozen of extras, all in all the ‘wolves’ are expected to be a bit more consistent and serious under Dieter Hecking.
*Stuttgart, Gladbach, Eintracht Frankfurt and Hamburg will most probably be in the Europa League qualification battle for most of the season since all four of them are with the same manager as last year and without any shocking transfer moves, either in or out. It’s worth mentioning, however, that Stuttgart showed a bit problematic offensively during preseason, Gladbach renewed its front line, Eintracht kept all of last season’s main weapons whilst Hamburg will have to do without Son.
*Mainz lost leaders Szalai and Ivanschitz but brought talented Japanese Okazaki in, looked good in preseason and has a rather quiet-to-positive season ahead. Hoffenheim is the team with the second lowest average age squad and seems set for another rollercoaster campaign, with many ‘wild’ matches and (because of the enthusiastic but inexperienced squad) without lots of positive or negative series. No significant changes in consistent Nuremberg (finished 10th in both 2011-2012 and 2012-2013), for which I would say that is underestimated by the bookmakers (3rd favorite for relegation).
*Werder Bremen is the only other team beside Bayern that comes into the season with a new manager but I reckon that neither serious Robin Dutt nor tireless central midfielder Maciadi can compensate for the losses of De Bruyne (10 goals last year) and Papastathopoulos, nor for the lack of experience in the squad. Not a favorite for a Europa League place in my opinion, by any means.
*Hannover is the luckiest (got 53 wins and suffered 56 losses in the last five years, despite an aggregate goal difference of -26!) and most ‘homesick’ German team. The northerners get more than 67% of their total points at home and less than 33% away whilst on average, Bundesliga teams gain 57% of their total points at home ground and the rest 43% on the road! Hannover’s away defense in particular is a joke since it has conceded 129 goals in 68 matches in the previous 5 years. Now, having lost three of their most important players, they could very well find themselves out of any ‘good’ battle soon...
*Freiburg sold five of last years’ ‘stars’ and are expected to be clearly inferior to last season’s excellent team, especially given the fact that they will be participating in the Europa League, too.
*Newly promoted Braunschweig didn’t manage to strengthen its squad and its rather logically the top favorite (1.55) for relegation, Augsburg’s roster is designed in such a way that homogeneity, work rate and discipline outweighs flair (thus a lot of close encounters with lots of fouls and bookings are expected), Hertha remains a mystery (56.5% of their total points were won away from Berlin in its last two season in the Bundesliga!) but still a club with good fan base, special weight and a serious manager in Jos Luhukay. Not one of my favorites for relegation.
General Bundesliga stats:
- 1-X-2 share: 44.5% - 24% - 31.5%
- Average goals per match: 2.91
- Over/Under: 56% - 44%
- Average player age: 24.9
- Youngest squads: Werder Bremen (23.8) – Freiburg (23.9) – Hoffenheim (23.9)
- Most experienced squads: Mainz (26.6) – Braunschweig (26.5) – Hertha (26.1)
- Average player value: 3,920,000
- Average attendance: 42,624
- Average percentage of points won at home and away: 57% - 43%
- Most ‘homesick’ teams: Hannover (67.2% of total points won at home) – Augsburg (63.4%) – Borussia Monchengladbach (60.4%)
- Less ‘homesick’ teams: Hertha (56.4% of total points won away) – Wolfsburg (46.9%) – Stuttgart (46.1%)
Value bets:
- Leverkusen to finish in Top 4 @ 1.75 (10/10)
- Augsburg to finish in Bottom 3 @ 2.38 (8/10)
- Stefan Kiessling to be Top Goalscorer @ 6.50 (5/10)
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